New Zealand's top 3 recession-proof industries 

With rising costs interest rates, inflation and ongoing impacts of the Russian-Ukraine war, markets around the world could be facing harder times and possibly a recession in 2023. And many New Zealander employers could experience shifts in people searching for more job security.   

SEEK’s Senior Economist, Matt Cowgill says that there might be a few storm clouds ahead. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is forecasting that the NZ economy will shrink in 2023. 

“The RBNZ is forecasting that the unemployment rate will rise quite sharply in 2023. If that happens, more employers will let staff go, and jobs will be harder to find for those out of work.” 

“While no industry is fully ‘recession-proof’, not every industry segment is susceptible to a downturn in the economy, and there are some industries that will do better than others," Cowgill says.   

1. Healthcare & Medical is the most recession-proof. People still need to access healthcare even during a period of slow economic growth, so demand for healthcare workers will remain strong during a recession.  
2. Farming, Animals & Conservation is also relatively recession-proof – people still need to eat regardless of how the economy’s going.  
3. Education & Training is one of the most stable industries, as people want to further their studies and advance their skills during a recession. Teachers will still be required to work and remain in high demand, even during periods of uncertainty. 

If you're going to hire during a recession, it helps to know which workers are the most in-demand right now. We’ve looked at the latest data – the table below is a snapshot of the top 20 most-in demand workers in New Zealand right now.

Source: Job ads listed on SEEK from Oct 2022-Dec 2022, based on average annual full time and annualised hourly salaries (excluding contract roles).

What this means for recruiters 

As companies scale back their hiring budgets, and competition for jobs grows, it’s important for recruiters to be ready to act on opportunities as soon as they arise.   

Kara Smith, Country Manager at Talent New Zealand says that while there may be more caution in the market, recruiters should expect things to remain competitive.  

“The Auckland market has had a delayed start to the year with hiring managers taking long periods of annual leave over Christmas and then the impacts of the floods and Cyclone Gabrielle,” says Smith.  

“But even with this creating a slower start from a hiring perspective, the market continues to be light and competitive.” 

Culture and benefits are key 

“Given the impacts of inflation, rising costs of living and the anticipation of a recession, we expect candidates to be more cautious, however this could work in businesses’ favour if they have competitive pay, strong benefits, an ESG strategy (Environmental, Social, and Governance) and a focus on their DEIB (diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging) and EVP (employee value proposition).” 

Smith says it’s not about what the employee can do for the employer but more so what the employer can do for the employee.  

“It’s important that hiring managers are focused on employee engagement and retention and that they are building a supportive culture while nurturing those career aspirations,” she says.  

“One thing we know for sure is we are in for a very dynamic market this year.” 

Office-based and leader-driven 

Nik King-Turner, Managing Director of Talent Wellington says the market has shifted from being candidate light to being more balanced.  

“It’s started with a ‘hiss and a roar’ for 2023, with more and more businesses working towards bringing their teams back into the offices and driving a leader-leader type practice,” says King-Turner.  

“For the organisations that had a 100% work from home policy this is hard to implement but is a must to retain culture.  

“People-first is still a big driver for lots of companies, with a focus on output and delivery being key.  

“Businesses hoping to attract talent are becoming more aware that they need to sell their EVP more now than ever before.”  

While New Zealand may not be in a recession in 2023, there’s most likely going to be a softening in the job market, so it pays to be prepared for any potential downturn. Focus on highlighting job security and culture, have a retention strategy and speed up your hiring process. That way when you are hiring, you’ll be in the best position to attract and land great talent.